As China accelerates its transition to clean energy, a stark divide has emerged between the provinces racing ahead and those lagging. While some regions have made impressive strides in reducing reliance on fossil fuels, others continue to expand coal power at alarming rates. So, who are the front-runners, and who’s falling behind in the battle for a greener power mix?
Why Some Provinces Are Leading While Others Lag？
A key factor behind this disparity is how provinces approach energy investments and grid coordination. Southern provinces, blessed with abundant hydropower resources, have been slow to diversify their clean energy portfolio. They have not invested sufficiently in wind and solar power, nor have they optimized grid operations across provinces to better integrate these renewables.
Meanwhile, northern provinces have taken a more proactive stance. They have introduced market-based incentives that allow coal plants to adjust their output dynamically, making it easier to integrate renewable energy into the grid. Additionally, enhanced cooperation in energy balancing and dispatch between provinces has played a crucial role in the north’s clean energy success.
Why This Matters for Carbon Neutrality？
Decarbonizing China’s electricity sector is the single most crucial step toward achieving its carbon neutrality goals. Despite progress in increasing the share of clean energy, overall power generation from fossil fuels has continued to rise. This underscores the urgent need to accelerate clean energy deployment to outpace the growing demand for electricity.
To better understand these regional dynamics, we analyzed a novel dataset of province-level power generation compiled by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Our findings reveal a clear contrast between north and south in China’s clean power transition.
North vs. South
From 2020 to 2024, nine northern provinces increased their share of clean power generation by more than 10 percentage points. Leading the charge were:
Liaoning (+22 points)
Heilongjiang (+21 points)
Jilin (+21 points)
Qinghai (+18 points)
Hebei (+16 points)
Henan (+15 points)
Shandong (+13 points)
Gansu (+13 points)
Conversely, setbacks were recorded in several southern provinces:
Chongqing (-9 points)
Guizhou (-5 points)
Yunnan (-3 points)
Guangdong (-2 points)
Hubei (-1 point)
Zhejiang (0 points, no progress)
The three northeastern provinces — Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin — secured the top spots for clean energy growth, while the provinces that saw setbacks were all located in the south.
Notably, only six provinces managed to reduce their absolute fossil fuel power generation: Shandong, Beijing, Tibet, and the three northeastern provinces. This trend highlights an emerging leadership role for northern China in the country’s clean energy transformation.
North-East China Leads the Way
The northeastern provinces have outpaced the rest of China in their transition to clean power. Between 2020 and 2024, fossil fuel power generation declined in all three provinces, even as it increased elsewhere. Their success was driven by a mix of wind, nuclear, bioenergy, and solar power investments.
Wind power capacity: +21 GW
Solar power capacity: +15 GW (including 8 GW distributed solar)
Nuclear capacity: +2.2 GW (with another 14 GW in preparation in Liaoning)
Liaoning, in particular, has been a standout performer, increasing its clean energy share by 22 percentage points. The province has set an ambitious goal of becoming a “clean energy powerhouse,” targeting 55% of installed capacity and 48% of power generation from clean sources by 2025, rising to 70% by 2030. In fact, as of 2024, clean power already makes up more than half of Liaoning’s total power generation.
A key element of Liaoning’s strategy is nuclear power, which is set to play a critical role in meeting these targets. The province has three major nuclear power bases and aims for nuclear energy to account for at least 22% of total power generation in 2024, increasing to 30% by 2030. Despite not being officially designated as one of China’s five clean energy demonstration provinces, Liaoning has independently set some of the country’s most ambitious targets for clean power.
The Bigger Picture
Between 2020 and 2024, the share of clean power in northern China rose from 20% to 31%. In contrast, southern China saw only a marginal increase, from 43% to 45%. The gap between the two regions is widening, and understanding the factors behind this divergence is key to shaping China’s overall energy transition strategy.
Eastern Coastal Leaders: Shandong and Hebei Shine
Among China’s eastern coastal provinces, Hebei and Shandong stand out for their rapid clean energy expansion. Between 2021 and 2024, these provinces saw the largest solar capacity additions in the country—50 GW in Hebei and 53 GW in Shandong. Both regions embraced a mix of centralized and distributed solar, significantly reducing their reliance on fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, Beijing and Shandong were the only eastern provinces that managed to cut fossil fuel-based power generation in absolute terms. Beijing achieved this by increasing electricity imports, whereas Shandong's progress came from expanding its own clean energy production.
China’s Megacities: A Mixed Performance
China’s four megacities showed contrasting trends. Tianjin led with a 10% increase in clean power, while Chongqing regressed with a 10% decline. Beijing (+1%) and Shanghai (+3%) barely moved the needle, highlighting the challenges of urban clean energy transitions.
Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas: Jiangsu Excels, Guangdong Stumbles
In China’s key economic hubs, the performance was varied. Jiangsu (+9%) outpaced its peers by keeping thermal power expansion in check. Meanwhile, Guangdong (-3%) was the worst performer, prioritizing coal power despite strong solar and offshore wind potential. Zhejiang (0%) made no meaningful progress.
Central and Western China: Surprising Standouts
Central provinces Henan (+13%) and Anhui (+8%) managed to clean their power mix despite rapid energy demand growth. Their success is a testament to effective renewable energy policies in high-population regions.
In western China, Qinghai took the crown for the largest clean energy share increase, thanks to a 21 GW solar and 7 GW wind boost. Gansu followed closely, adding 23 GW of wind and 22 GW of solar. Qinghai's clean power share was already high but grew enough to surpass Yunnan and Sichuan.
Yet, western China also hosts the worst performers. Chongqing and Guizhou saw fossil power generation outpace clean energy growth. Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, despite massive clean energy expansions, saw their gains diluted by even faster coal power growth.
Why Is the South Lagging Behind?
A clear regional divide has emerged: northern provinces are leading the clean energy transition, while southern provinces are struggling. In seven of China’s 15 southern provinces, including economic giants Guangdong and Zhejiang, the share of clean power declined or stagnated.
From 2020 to 2024, fossil fuel power generation in the south jumped by 28%, compared to just 12% in the north. This disparity has severe implications for China’s CO2 emissions.
Southern China hosts most of the country’s hydropower and nuclear capacity, yet these sources have failed to keep up with demand. Hydropower-rich provinces have been slow to invest in wind and solar, clinging to outdated notions of energy abundance.
Additionally, poor grid coordination among southern provinces has made it harder to integrate renewables. Instead of leveraging hydropower to balance wind and solar, each province operates in isolation, missing a crucial opportunity for synergy.
Lessons from the North: How to Get It Right
The north has found ways to overcome clean energy integration challenges. North-eastern provinces, with the highest increase in clean energy share, benefited from slow power demand growth and strong wind resources. More importantly, they implemented market-based incentives that encourage coal plants to adjust output based on wind and solar availability.
Energy storage is also playing a key role. Hebei leads in pumped storage, while Shandong dominates in new battery storage capacity. These investments help stabilize the grid and maximize renewable energy utilization.
However, grid constraints remain a major bottleneck. Henan’s solar boom slowed sharply in 2024 due to inadequate grid development. Without matching grid investment, even the most ambitious clean energy expansions can stall.
The Future of China’s Clean Energy Race
As China moves toward stricter emissions targets, provinces that fail to invest in local clean energy will increasingly depend on power imports. This will impact economic competitiveness, as businesses seek access to stable, low-carbon electricity.
The southern provinces must recognize that hydropower alone is no longer enough. Offshore wind, distributed solar, and better grid coordination will be essential. Meanwhile, northern provinces must continue investing in flexible grids, energy storage, and hybrid power plants to maintain their momentum.
Ultimately, China’s clean energy transition is a tale of regional divergence. Provinces that embrace innovation and investment will emerge as leaders in the new energy economy, while those that cling to outdated models risk falling behind.